Economic factor raw material extraction

Development of demand up to 2040

How will demand for primary and secondary rock raw materials develop in Germany up to 2040?

This question was investigated by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and SST Ingenieurgesellschaft Aachen.

Assuming relatively low economic momentum, i.e. growth in gross domestic product of +0.7% per year in real terms, the demand for primary rock raw materials will be a good 480 million tons in 2040.

Compared with the base year 2019, when demand was around 580 million t, this represents a decrease of 100 million t. With stronger economic growth in gross domestic product of +1.6% per year in real terms, demand for primary stone-earth raw materials rises to just under 600 million t, slightly above the level of the 2019 base year.

The conclusion: a significant decline in demand for primary stone and earth raw materials is therefore not expected.

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